CASHEW MARKET UPDATE END OF SEPTEMBER

The kernel market in September mainly followed short-term buying demand, with decent volume from EU and Middle East Buyers. Meanwhile, China is going through a 10-day National Day holiday, so there has been limited response to the current kernel market. RCN prices continued to rise slightly and remained high for West Africa origins, especially Boke afloat cargoes that help to solve short – terms for RCN quantity of Vietnamese processors and keep production running until the new crops of Indonesia, Tanzania and Mozambique coming.

The local market has been facing prolonged difficulties since July–August, with no solution yet to the imbalance between RCN and kernel output prices. More than 50% of small local processors had decided to close and stop production even though the third quarter of 2026 had not yet ended, while others are are assessing risks and buying RCN only for short-term needs to maintain their factories running, mainly not because kernels can be sold at good prices, but because cashew shell prices remain high and have increased by more than $200/MT. Kernel market price increased slightly by 10–15 cents/kg over the recent period, reflecting the continued rise in RCN offer prices, and main grades traded being W240/W210/W180, with shortages continuing for an extended period. Meanwhile, broken grades such as LP/WS or 2nd grades, and even W320 remain widely stocked across the market since it is very difficult to find suitable output. Although Olam has shown signs of returning to buy at $3.10/lb for W320 and $3.40/lb for W240 which leads to struggle to closing deals in good volumes. In Europe, W320 has been traded with better price, at around $3.13–3.15/lb and $3.5-3.55/lbs for W240 with short-term shipments in October/November. Some big US Buyers have also started making inquiries for next season, but their ideal prices is just only $3.00–3.05/lb, which poses a major risk that not all Vietnamese suppliers are willing to sign contracts covering the next six months.

RCN prices have remained high from September until now, with particularly strong demand for big nuts with nut count of 180–185, and thus, Boke and IVC continue to be on target and sought after in the market. Buyers are willing to pay an extra $20/MT for offers guaranteeing a nut count of 180 or below, which is an interesting point of this year’s market. RCN is trading at around $1485–1490/MT for IVC 44 lbs, while Boke 50–51 lbs at around $1740–1750/MT continues to attract interest from Vietnamese factories, while origins with smaller nuts such as Senegal, Bissau, and Indonesia see less trading activities due to nut counts above 200, despite good OT and quality of early crop. Factories are mainly buying RCN for processing to maintain production by selling shells at over $200/MT and W240 first due to strong demand and accepting stock buildup of W320 and lower grades rather than considering an early shutdown from October 2026. With ideal prices for Tanzania RCN at around $1850+/MT, factories will have limited choices for RCN supply in the coming period. Borma kernels are also being considered as another option when quality is controlled and clearer claim standards are established, while prices have also gone up slightly, with recent trading at around $2.45/lb.

The market remains quite slow despite entering the Fourth Quarter of 2026, with continued difficulties and challenges since the beginning of the year regarding selling prices for Vietnam’s exports. Cash flow constraints, high interest rates, and rising freight rates are also affecting factories, preventing them from making high-risk decisions. Current solution for sales mainly relies on Europe and the Middle East, with hopes for demand from China towards the end of the year while US buyers have started looking to buy for 2027 at very low prices, which will continue to challenge the market in the coming period.

Reference prices

Kernel Offers from Packers

• W320: $3.15-3.20 – Top and BRC Packers
• W320: $3.10-3.15$ – Medium Packers
• W240: $3.45–3.55
• W180: $4.40-4.50
• WS: $2.57-2.60
• LP: $1.95-2.0

Raw cashew nut offers

• IVC 45 lbs – 185 NC – $1500 -$1520 - afloat

• IVC 44 lbs – 185 NC – $1470- $1490 - afloat

• Ghana 44 lbs – 190 NC – $1450 - $1460 - Sep/Oct

• Tanza 52 lbs – 190 NC – $1850 - Oct/Nov

• Indonesia 51 lbs – 200 NC – $1750 - Oct Nov

• Borma IVC: 2.45-2.47$/lbs – Oct/Nov

Homie D'Lion Group